Global Markets on Edge: Trade Wars, Tech Battles, and Crypto Chaos – What’s Next?
Analyst Weekly, October 13, 2025
China and the US: A Trade Tug-of-War Heats Up
The world’s two largest economies are locking horns again, and this time, the stakes are higher than ever. Beijing has tightened its grip on rare-earth materials—essential for AI and semiconductor production—launched an antitrust probe into Qualcomm, and slapped new port fees on US vessels. Not to be outdone, the US President has threatened tariffs as high as 100% on Chinese imports and hinted at stricter export controls on sensitive technologies. But here’s where it gets controversial: Are these moves a strategic game of chess or the first steps toward a full-blown economic divorce? While neither side seems ready to sever ties completely, the escalating tensions are keeping investors on edge.
Investment Takeaway: This isn’t a collapse—yet. Both nations appear more focused on strategic positioning than outright disengagement. However, sectors heavily reliant on China (think hardware, autos, and shipping) could face short-term pressure. In the medium term, US-focused equities may shine as the country leans into self-sufficiency. Long-term, expect industrial independence and supply-chain resilience to dominate the narrative.
Policy-Driven Industrial Revival: America’s Bet on Domestic Production
Washington is doubling down on its ‘sovereign wealth’ strategy, funneling investments into critical sectors like steel, semiconductors, and rare-earth minerals. Companies like US Steel, Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals are at the forefront of this shift. And this is the part most people miss: These firms aren’t just beneficiaries of government funding—they’re becoming pillars of national security. Investors should watch these names closely, as their growth is increasingly tied to geopolitical priorities.
Earnings Season Kicks Off: What to Watch
The week of October 14-18 marks the start of Q3 earnings season, with heavyweights across banking, healthcare, consumer, and industrial sectors reporting. Here’s a quick rundown:
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): Can investment banking’s rebound sustain earnings growth? Eyes are on net interest income (NII) and whether management raises full-year guidance.
- Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): Will deposit trends and expense management paint a rosier picture for Q3?
- Goldman Sachs (GS): Is the M&A surge here to stay, or just a fleeting moment?
- BlackRock Inc. (BLK): Where are investors putting their money? Bond funds or riskier assets?
- Citigroup Inc. (C): Will the multi-year revamp finally pay off with improved efficiency?
- Bank of America Corp. (BAC): Can cost discipline offset inflationary pressures?
- PNC Financial Services (PNC): How are regional banks faring in a high-yield environment?
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Pharma pipeline momentum and MedTech growth are in the spotlight.
- Progressive Corp. (PGR): Pricing discipline and claims cost trends will be key.
- United Airlines (UAL): Lower fuel prices could boost Q3 results—but for how long?
- American Express (AXP): Can premium card spending and loan growth keep pace without sacrificing credit quality?
Crypto’s Black Friday: A Wake-Up Call for Investors
Last Friday, crypto markets experienced one of their darkest hours. Bitcoin plummeted 15% in an hour, Ethereum dropped 20%, and some altcoins were virtually halved. Nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions vanished in a single day. But here’s the silver lining: Despite the carnage, Bitcoin rebounded to $115K by Sunday, showcasing its growing resilience. The takeaway? Crypto isn’t a quick gamble—it’s infrastructure. Investors should prioritize transparency, custody, and depth over leverage and speculation.
SPDR S&P Bank ETF: Holding the Line
After a three-week losing streak, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF found support in the 56.41-57.36 range—a key zone from August’s rally. While the uptrend remains intact, buyers must conquer the 60.93-61.38 resistance zone to resume momentum. Earnings season could be the catalyst—or the test.
Gold: Record Highs and Overheating Concerns
Gold hit a new all-time high above $4,000 last week, capping an eight-week winning streak. But with the RSI above 81, the market is flashing overheating signals. The question is: Will a pullback be healthy, or is this just the beginning of a new era for gold? Key support zones to watch: $3,790-$3,883 and $3,707-$3,762.
Final Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty
From trade wars to crypto crashes, markets are anything but predictable. But amidst the chaos, opportunities emerge. Whether it’s US-focused equities, critical materials, or resilient assets like gold, the key is to stay informed and adaptable. What’s your take? Are we on the brink of a new economic order, or just another chapter in the same old story? Let us know in the comments!
