How much snow is expected? Confidence building for ‘double trouble’ winter storm on Sunday and Monday
WASHINGTON (FOX 5 DC) – It’s been a while since the last inch of snow fell in Washington, DC – over 700 days in fact.
Last year it was winter that was not here in our area, not having picked up an inch of snow from a single storm, but less than an inch of snow all season for the third. only times in the history of the city.
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This year has not started well for Reagan National either, as the airport has so far picked up only 0.3 “of snow this winter.
We have to go back to February 2019 for the last time DC had more than 1 “of snow, and to January of the same year for the last winter storm in the city.
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This upcoming winter storm will be divided into two parts. The first part of the storm system is the part we trust the most, as the models generally agree on how it will play out.
This is a process we call overflow, where warm, humid air flows into cold, dry air and is forced to rise, condense, and fall as snow.
Snow is expected to approach our area early Sunday morning, covering the area from southwest to northeast between sunrise and noon.
HOW MUCH SNOW? DEVIL IN DETAILS FOR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY
Snow is expected to fall at a light but steady pace, with temperatures on Friday and Saturday expected to be some of the coldest of the winter season. The ground will be ready to accumulate all the winter precipitation that falls.
A winter storm watch was issued Sunday for much of the DC area.
Various weather patterns have been fairly consistent with the prevalent snowfall amounts, with 2-5 inch snowfall coverage most of the area with the initial snow push throughout Sunday.
The European is the most aggressive of the snowfall forecast this morning as it shows little mixing on Sunday afternoon, leaving it mostly as a snowy event before the snow sets in and the region potentially takes a break in the evening Sunday evening.
The US model shows similar amounts of 2 to 5 inches throughout the region on Sunday, but differs in that it shows more mixing with rain and sleet from afternoon until evening, which would help reduce totals across the region. .
One of the few remaining debates for Sunday is simply whether or not this mix will happen, but confidence is high that the event will at least start as snow and several inches are likely to fall.
After some lull in the action Sunday night until the early hours of Monday, the second part of the storm will begin as a coastal storm system begins to develop to the south and east.
It’s that part of the storm where the models stay divided.
The European Friday morning model, for example, shows the redevelopment of snow through Monday afternoon afternoon with the heaviest bands of snow settling along I-95 and areas to ballast… something that is actually quite rare for coastal systems like this.
In fact, it shows that the northwestern regions struggle with a lot of dry air and receive very little additional snowfall.
Notice how this is reflected in the image above, only showing the extra snow that the European model is depositing on Monday. The eastern areas receive more, the western areas receive less.
Bringing together the Sunday and Monday parts of the system, the total snowfall forecast for this prolonged winter storm.
The most interesting thing to note is something that doesn’t happen too often in our area which is more snow in the south and east as opposed to the higher totals generally seen in the north and west areas.
In contrast, the American model shows more of the classic Nor’easter set up on Monday afternoon, with the rain / snow line dancing between southern Maryland and the I-95 corridor while the northwestern areas see the stripes. heavier snow will develop as the storm strengthens. Monday afternoon.
With the model showing more mixing to the southeast with the Monday portion of the system, the model is much less aggressive with the amounts of snow in these areas. Note that the model shows the highest totals more classic in the northwest areas.
So when we look at the US model total for Sunday and Monday events combined, it shows more than almost what we would expect to see from a coastal winter storm in this region, and that’s higher amounts. northwest of town.
In summary, we expect snow to spread over the area on Sunday, starting in the morning hours. Several centimeters will likely fall, as our area is experiencing either a break or a slight mixture of sleet or rain in the evening.
The snow is then expected to regenerate in parts of the area on Monday, but at this point we still don’t know who will have the best chance of getting the heaviest snow bands on Monday afternoon. We’ll have to keep an eye on the weather models over the next few days to get details.
The system should conclude an outing from our area later Monday night or in the early hours of Tuesday morning. As it stands, we have a reasonable model agreement to believe that at least 4-8 “of snow will be possible with this system by the time it leaves our region, with a” boom threat “of 8. -12 “certainly possible.
Travel is likely to be dangerous in the area, as the very cold ground temperatures will allow the snow to stick quickly when it falls.
Stay tuned to FOX 5 all weekend for updates on what could be DC’s biggest snowfall in about two years! And don’t forget this free FOX 5 Weather app! The best way to keep up with the storm as it enters our region.
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